Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4471…3f7b other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$584 (-510%) realized −$546 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$67
sports 15% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-80.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -78.9% -80.9% 7% 2% -91.7%
≤30d 170 -78.9% -80.9% 7% 2% -91.7%
≤90d 170 -78.9% -80.9% 7% 2% -91.7%
all 170 -78.9% -80.9% 7% 2% -91.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.9% 2% -91.7%
10% -82.7% 2% -92.5%
15% -84.4% 2% -93.2%
20% -85.9% 2% -93.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -150% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -150% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -97% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$546
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 158
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions38
Markets (closed)170 / 15
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 72¢ 98¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+37%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 99¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 17¢ 8¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-51%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 64¢ 28¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-66%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 37¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 20? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27? Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on April 9? Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 29? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 16 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on April 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 1? Jun 16 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 16 $5 −$10 -200%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Canne Jun 16 $33 −$66 -200%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $28 −$55 -200%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 16 $11 −$23 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 16 $7 −$14 -200%
Will "Unchosen" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 16 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -206%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30? Jun 16 $2 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 1? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -204%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aaron Flint be the Republican nominee for MT-01? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on April 2? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 Jun 16 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$13 -201%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on April 30? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 16 $0 +$19 +16472%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $32 −$63 -200%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 53m and 57m? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 30? Jun 16 $2 −$4 -200%
Ethereum ETF Flows on June 5? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 11h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 19h
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $17 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 32h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $9 32h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 34h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 59¢ $28 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $27 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.81 · official $342.67 (match) · 3500 history records