Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x4471…19ff other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$326 (+1%) realized +$178 · open +$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%39W / 49L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$1,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$168
14 days−$373
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$42
sports 12% +$225
world 1% −$220
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 38% +33.6%
≤30d 72 -10.9% -19.3% 42% 38% -13.0%
≤90d 86 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 36% -9.6%
all 88 -9.0% -17.7% 44% 35% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 35% -9.9%
10% -25.6% 26% -18.5%
15% -32.8% 19% -26.4%
20% -39.3% 14% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$62 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1,123
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$148
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses39 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions7
Markets (closed)88 / 102
History coverage105d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $300 $407 +$107 (+36%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $336 $369 +$33 (+10%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $129 $128 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 27¢ $85 $70 −$16 (-18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $35 $63 +$28 (+80%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $31 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 +$4 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 Jun 27 $25 −$14 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$3 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $171 +$129 +75%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 AND Ecu Jun 26 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $419 −$74 -18%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $448 −$40 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $152 −$21 -14%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $7 +$43 +596%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $44 +$9 +21%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $76 −$76 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $8 −$7 -87%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $17 −$9 -52%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -54%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $13 −$7 -52%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $38 +$49 +129%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$139 -69%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $151 +$45 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $106 −$105 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $512 +$83 +16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$73 +276%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $404 +$103 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 +$18 +18%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $63 +$25 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $137 +$63 +46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $130 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a dr BUY 2¢ $3 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 3¢ $3 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a dr BUY 2¢ $3 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 4¢ $3 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 67¢ $8 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 45¢ $8 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 SELL 3¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL 28¢ $22 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 30¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 BUY 7¢ $25 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY 70¢ $304 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $35 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $13 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $34 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $66 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $9 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $9 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $2 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 AND Ecu BUY 56¢ $100 3d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 11d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $0 11d
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $34 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,123.36 · official $1,123.41 (match) · 401 history records