Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x446d…837f world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
politics 20% $0
crypto 9% −$2
other 8% $0
weather 8% $0
economics 8% $0
sports 7% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 67% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 9 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 0% -9.0%
all 30 -0.8% -10.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage324d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $4 $0 +8%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $58 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $0 $0 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $117K and $119K on August 6? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Au Aug 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $9 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $19 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $28 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $22 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $4 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $25 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $29 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $29 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $26 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $6 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $32 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $26 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $30 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $24 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $6 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $29 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.95 · official $32.95 (match) · 92 history records