Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x446c…af1d sports 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-9%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%162W / 340L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$47
14 days+$24
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$11
other 12% −$54
politics 3% +$2
world 1% −$3
weather 1% −$9
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +151.0% +127.1% 27% 27% +99.9%
≤30d 167 +2.3% -7.4% 27% 27% +5.2%
≤90d 488 -10.5% -19.0% 32% 32% -16.4%
all 502 -10.6% -19.1% 32% 32% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 32% -16.6%
10% -26.8% 31% -24.6%
15% -33.9% 31% -31.9%
20% -40.4% 31% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses162 / 340
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions14
Markets (closed)502 / 547
History coverage109d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Florian Wirtz win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+22%)
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 43¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'I Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1735%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +113%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$3 +194%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +524%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 +$34 +947%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND W Jun 14 $1 +$14 +1410%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 198.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $2 +$4 +257%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 19¢ $2 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 30m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY 12¢ $2 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United Sta BUY 1¢ $1 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. A BUY 4¢ $1 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 2¢ $0 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 1¢ $0 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: F BUY 1¢ $0 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Aus BUY 3¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Aus BUY 1¢ $1 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway BUY 2¢ $1 2h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $0 7h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $1 7h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $1 7h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $2 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND IR Ir BUY 46¢ $5 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay BUY 1¢ $1 16h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will Spain win o BUY 1¢ $0 16h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. BUY 2¢ $1 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: BUY 2¢ $1 17h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Saudi Ara BUY 2¢ $1 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: IR I BUY 2¢ $0 17h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23h
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Florian Wirtz win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.12 · official $38.53 · 1118 history records