Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

44 0x446a…88ee other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$178 (+14%) realized +$178 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR73%break-even

Win rate93%14W / 1L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$85per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +73%

net ROI/market (all)+37.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+51.6%	+37.2%	93%	73%	+4.0%
≤30d	15	+51.6%	+37.2%	93%	73%	+4.0%
≤90d	15	+51.6%	+37.2%	93%	73%	+4.0%
all	15	+51.6%	+37.2%	93%	73%	+4.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.2%	73%	+4.0%
10%	+24.1%	33%	-6.0%
15%	+12.1%	20%	-15.1%
20%	+1.1%	13%	-23.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 38% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +67% → late +38% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$40 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.74 per $1 lost it wins $5.74

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$178

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)93%

Wins / losses14 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)15 / 15

History coverage5d

Avg bet$85

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 15 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$31	+$11	+37%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$51	+$5	+11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$3	+$7	+197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$31	+$4	+12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$241	+$21	+9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$210	+$30	+14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$201	+$9	+5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$169	+$31	+18%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 19	$131	+$38	+29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$114	+$18	+16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$4	+20%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$10	+$49	+474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$40	−$40	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$20	+$1	+6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1	$0	+26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	85¢	$42	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	33¢	$3	21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$31	22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	90¢	$51	22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$31	22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	92¢	$241	26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	87¢	$210	33h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	96¢	$201	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	84¢	$169	2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Korea Republic	77¢	$131	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	86¢	$114	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	83¢	$20	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$40	4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	93¢	$21	4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$1	4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	87¢	$20	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records