Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4466…446e
weather · 378 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,529 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$720 · open +$188
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,282
Realized−$720
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses80 / 42
Open positions473
Markets (closed)122 / 378
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1457.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 473 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$720
7 days−$720
14 days−$720
30 days−$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 78¢ 100¢ $55 $70 +$15 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 69¢ 100¢ $47 $68 +$21 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? No 92¢ 100¢ $55 $60 +$5 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 90¢ 100¢ $54 $60 +$6 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 97¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 79¢ 100¢ $34 $42 +$9 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? No 71¢ 72¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? No 66¢ 100¢ $27 $41 +$14 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? No 89¢ 100¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 88¢ 94¢ $35 $38 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 87¢ 87¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 64¢ 62¢ $32 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? No 66¢ 73¢ $26 $29 +$3 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? No 67¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 +$8 +9301%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +7125%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $0 +$7 +10526%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 14 $0 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$24 +446%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $21 +$10 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $7 +$8 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $15 +$7 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$95 +1823%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 13? Jun 14 $144 −$99 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 14 $17 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $18 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$7 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $30 +$24 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$4 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$9 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 14? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on June 15? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 14? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$8 +111%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 89% −$347
other 11% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 62¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $15 22m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $6 27m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $9 31m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 31m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C or below on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+60.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 +77.7% +60.8% 66% 44% -35.6%
≤30d 122 +77.7% +60.8% 66% 44% -35.6%
≤90d 122 +77.7% +60.8% 66% 44% -35.6%
all 122 +77.7% +60.8% 66% 44% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1457.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +60.8% 44% -35.6%
10% ← realistic here +45.4% 33% -41.8%
15% +31.4% 28% -47.4%
20% +18.5% 21% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,282.35 · official $3,294.65 (match) · 3500 history records