Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4461…a8da crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% $0
crypto 13% $0
politics 11% −$2
sports 9% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage121d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $339 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Apr 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $108 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $108 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $127 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $47 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records