Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4461…ddb6
other · 3 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$57 -44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$75
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage234d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 1 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $106 $31 −$75 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 04 $18 +$15 +85%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Dec 01 $5 +$2 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 61d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 62d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 63d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 70d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 71d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 72d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 75d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 111d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 146d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 153d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 155d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 157d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $33 160d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $7 194d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 195d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $3 200d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $1 226d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 62¢ $1 226d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $1 230d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 60¢ $2 230d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY No 69¢ $2 234d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 73¢ $2 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 +70.1% +53.9% 100% 100% +62.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.9% 100% +62.1%
10% +39.1% 100% +46.5%
15% +25.7% 100% +32.4%
20% +13.4% 100% +19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.88 · official $30.88 (match) · 25 history records