Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4460…9b5b
other · 66 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
+$80 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage582d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 3 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $131 $0 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $117 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $48 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $119 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $118 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $119 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $117 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $109 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $121 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$7 +72%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Senators vs. Panthers Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Apr 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Golden Knights Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Wizards vs. Jazz Mar 27 $24 +$39 +163%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 25 $22 +$27 +127%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 23 $32 +$10 +32%
Spread: Bulls (-5.5) Mar 18 $27 +$24 +89%
Penguins vs. Utah Mar 16 $23 +$30 +133%
Maple Leafs vs. Wild Mar 16 $36 +$76 +212%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$9
politics 23% −$3
economics 23% −$8
sports 13% +$83
tech 5% −$1
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $26 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $116 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $117 26d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $11 28d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $112 32d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $112 33d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $113 36d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $113 36d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $108 36d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $108 36d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $115 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +8.7% -1.6% 22% 11% -7.6%
≤90d 50 -1.9% -11.2% 24% 16% -8.0%
all 63 +0.3% -9.3% 29% 14% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 14% -8.0%
10% -17.9% 14% -16.8%
15% -25.9% 13% -24.8%
20% -33.1% 13% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.63 · official $84.63 (match) · 249 history records