Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
44 0x445c…c4f1 crypto 348 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$396 (+3%) realized +$338 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%190W / 157L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$242
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$399
crypto 25% −$116
other 20% +$644
world 7% +$54
culture 3% +$130
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -10.5% -19.0% 52% 52% -12.1%
≤30d 41 -15.5% -23.6% 51% 49% -19.2%
≤90d 98 -13.0% -21.3% 51% 50% -21.6%
all 347 +2.0% -7.7% 55% 53% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 53% -8.0%
10% -16.6% 49% -16.8%
15% -24.6% 42% -24.9%
20% -32.0% 33% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$338
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses190 / 157
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)347 / 348
History coverage112d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 90¢ $106 $164 +$58 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $143 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $73 −$8 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$13 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET Jun 25 $138 +$61 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 +$37 +180%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $38 +$23 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$17 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $41 −$18 -44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $150 +$28 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $247 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +47%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $195 +$47 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $179 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $149 +$65 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$23 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $30 +$18 +60%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $102 −$101 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $72 +$30 +42%
Genoa CFC vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $68 +$19 +27%
CA River Plate vs. CA Aldosivi: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $31 +$15 +48%
SC Heerenveen vs. Fortuna Sittard: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $20 +$11 +55%
Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $50 +$18 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 9m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 61¢ $139 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $199 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $138 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 20h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $57 21h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $35 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $23 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $61 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $38 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $59 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $98 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $61 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.62 · official $163.62 (match) · 734 history records