Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x445c…e995 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$32
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$20
politics 26% −$15
sports 22% −$17
crypto 7% −$10
world 6% −$3
economics 3% −$2
culture 3% −$3
tech 3% −$15
finance 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 67 -0.9% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 131 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 118
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage101d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $61 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $60 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $175 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 15 $53 −$6 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $369 −$2 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $41 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $62 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $176 −$2 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $324 −$4 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $320 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $53 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 04 $64 −$2 -3%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $66 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $273 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $153 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $56 47m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $61 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $61 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $57 6h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $58 14h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $60 14h
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $60 21h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 27h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 27h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 31h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $65 32h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $65 38h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 43h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $56 43h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $43 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $0 2d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $42 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $57 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $57 3d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.00 · official $56.00 (match) · 538 history records