Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

44 0x445a…995f crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1

7 days+$19

14 days+$19

30 days+$19

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-2.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+30.6%	+18.2%	62%	62%	+26.0%
≤30d	8	+30.6%	+18.2%	62%	62%	+26.0%
≤90d	9	+16.1%	+5.1%	56%	56%	-2.8%
all	16	+7.7%	-2.5%	44%	44%	-12.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.5%	44%	-12.9%
10%	-11.9%	44%	-21.2%
15%	-20.4%	44%	-28.8%
20%	-28.2%	38%	-35.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -15% → late +31% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.89 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage

Net worth$11

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 20

History coverage185d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	30¢	$4	$7	+$3 (+79%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	51¢	48¢	$5	$4	−$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	21¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$2	+$1	+64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$15	+$9	+57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$5	−$3	-60%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$8	+$12	+152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$4	+$4	+111%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	Jun 12	$5	−$1	-26%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 17	$17	−$15	-91%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Jan 12	$2	$0	-11%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Dec 14	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	Dec 14	$4	$0	-5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14?	Dec 14	$8	−$3	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Dec 14	$4	+$4	+96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?	Dec 14	$1	+$2	+141%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Dec 14	$2	−$2	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$3	1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$3	1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	4h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	94¢	$7	4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$24	2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY	50¢	$2	3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	SELL Switzerland	24¢	$2	3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	58¢	$5	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$15	3d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$20	3d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5	BUY Over	39¢	$8	4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	44¢	$8	4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$4	4d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	SELL No	9¢	$4	4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	8d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	8d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	8d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	BUY No	11¢	$5	8d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	18¢	$15	30d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	19¢	$1	156d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	SELL Yes	32¢	$2	156d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$8	184d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	SELL No	35¢	$4	184d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14?	SELL Yes	36¢	$5	184d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14?	BUY Yes	62¢	$8	184d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$4	184d
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?	SELL Yes	41¢	$4	184d
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	184d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	BUY Yes	36¢	$2	184d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.33 · official $11.33 (match) · 34 history records