Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x445a…4acb
world · 67 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$137 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$140 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage521d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+413%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 39¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $102 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $94 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $38 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $125 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $117 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $76 +$4 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $16 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $44 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 20 $6 $0 -6%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $2 $0 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 27 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $280 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $224 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $292 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislati May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Duquesne vs. La Salle Mar 20 $30 +$30 +100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.5% and 48.9% on Februar Feb 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on February Feb 23 $13 +$9 +75%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 22 $6 $0 +8%
Will egg prices be between $4.50-4.75 for January? Feb 13 $7 +$2 +28%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12? Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $57 +$22 +39%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 12 $49 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% $0
other 33% +$45
politics 13% +$47
sports 11% +$44
weather 1% +$5
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $14 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $37 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $37 6h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 23h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $1 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $9 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $20 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $36 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $37 34h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 38h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $34 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 59¢ $37 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $37 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $18 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $18 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 27 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 35 -2.9% -12.1% 43% 0% -9.5%
all 65 +11.6% +1.0% 57% 23% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 23% -4.9%
10% -8.7% 22% -14.0%
15% -17.5% 17% -22.3%
20% -25.6% 15% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.50 · official $7.85 (match) · 266 history records