Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4459…4117
crypto · 192 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$143 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$127 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$68
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses77 / 92
Open positions23
Markets (closed)169 / 192
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day44.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 23 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$127
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 52¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 77¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 67¢ 40¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-41%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? No 59¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Yes 61¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat? No 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 8¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 25¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-90%)
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -5%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -17%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $6 +$1 +13%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 08 $1 $0 -26%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Jun 08 $2 $0 -11%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -30%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -21%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$144
world 11% −$3
other 9% +$6
politics 5% +$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 30h
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat? BUY No 6¢ $1 46h
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 47h
US strike on Mexico by December 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 17¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -13.7% -22.0% 54% 46% -9.4%
≤30d 169 -27.4% -34.3% 46% 41% -29.3%
≤90d 169 -27.4% -34.3% 46% 41% -29.3%
all 169 -27.4% -34.3% 46% 41% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.3% 41% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.6% 23% -36.1%
15% -46.4% 14% -42.2%
20% -51.6% 9% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.22 · official $68.23 (match) · 603 history records