Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x4458…81d2 crypto 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$315 (+1%) realized +$312 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate93%53W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$122
other 15% +$151
economics 15% +$18
finance 6% +$1
world 5% +$6
politics 2% +$7
tech 2% +$5
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 57 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -8.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$744) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×18.32 per $1 lost it wins $18.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$759
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses53 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage250d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $422 $425 +$4 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $188 $188 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $133 $133 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 97¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 20 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $144 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $751 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $749 +$2 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 03 $749 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 26 $744 +$4 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $187 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,750+ in March? Apr 06 $173 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,625-$5,750 in March? Apr 06 $433 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 30 $744 +$12 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $729 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 15 $134 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $570 +$3 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Mar 15 $154 −$12 -8%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 09 $510 +$7 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $351 +$2 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $1,185 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 21 $489 +$21 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? Feb 20 $219 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January? Jan 30 $222 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 30 $1,086 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 28 $1,305 +$4 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $1,297 +$8 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 02 $530 +$107 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $10 +$1 +8%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $10 +$2 +20%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $335 +$6 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 29 $291 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $299 +$36 +12%
Aster all time high by December 31? Dec 14 $503 +$27 +5%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Dec 13 $205 +$7 +4%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 13 $76 +$3 +4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Nov 29 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 29 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 29 $199 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 14 $298 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k November 3-9? Nov 10 $692 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $118k November 3-9? Nov 09 $691 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 08 $800 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k November 3-9? Nov 07 $787 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 8? Nov 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $116k November 3-9? Nov 07 $424 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 8? Nov 07 $533 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 8? Nov 06 $937 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $133 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 97¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $146 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $188 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $188 8d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 99¢ $145 10d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $145 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $144 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $141 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $749 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $752 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $751 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $751 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $749 52d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $749 58d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $561 59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $188 59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $187 65d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $187 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $744 80d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $138 87d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,625-$5,750 in March? BUY No 100¢ $433 87d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,750+ in March? BUY No 100¢ $173 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $606 87d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 98¢ $731 93d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $731 93d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $729 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $90 101d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 98¢ $134 101d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $350 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $758.84 · official $758.84 (match) · 166 history records