trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -8.1% | -16.9% | 40% | 40% | +14.7% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -23.8% | -31.1% | 36% | 36% | +0.8% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -23.8% | -31.1% | 36% | 36% | +0.8% |
| all | 24 | -50.8% | -55.5% | 25% | 25% | -25.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -55.5% | 25% | -25.8% |
| 10% | -59.8% | 21% | -32.9% |
| 15% | -63.6% | 17% | -39.4% |
| 20% | -67.2% | 8% | -45.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 52¢ | 52¢ | $200 | $198 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 44¢ | 40¢ | $101 | $93 | −$9 (-9%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $74 | $73 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 6¢ | 4¢ | $8 | $6 | −$2 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 22 | $31 | −$3 | -8% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $218 | +$62 | +29% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $101 | +$53 | +52% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $20 | +$63 | +307% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $156 | +$60 | +39% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 17 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 17 | $31 | −$30 | -98% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 17 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 15 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $100 | +$47 | +48% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 11 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | Dec 19 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Dec 19 | $30 | +$4 | +14% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? | Nov 16 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Nov 08 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Nov 07 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? | Nov 07 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | Nov 07 | $173 | −$173 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | Nov 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |