Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4455…6b2a other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$69 (+5%) realized +$38 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$74
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$79
sports 14% −$12
crypto 2% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 45% -2.9%
≤30d 41 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 44% -4.3%
≤90d 41 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 44% -4.3%
all 41 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 44% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 44% -4.3%
10% -22.8% 37% -13.5%
15% -30.2% 32% -21.9%
20% -37.1% 27% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage9d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $79 $135 +$56 (+71%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Norway to score first vs. France? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $99 +$134 +135%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $24 −$17 -70%
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 25 $5 +$10 +204%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$27 +263%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$4 -70%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$22 -88%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $121 +$2 +2%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $106 +$16 +15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$33 +128%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $149 +$3 +2%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$20 +37%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $44 −$44 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$12 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$22 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37 +$9 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 −$44 -73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 +$7 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$12 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$13 +145%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$5 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$4 -65%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 43m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 49m
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $29 58m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Norway to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $33 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 17h
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 19h
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $28 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 41h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 14¢ $2 41h
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 42h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 43h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $104 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 89¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.64 · official $149.64 (match) · 94 history records