Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4454…4717 crypto 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (246 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-5%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%67W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day246.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (246 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -15.0% -23.1% 36% 34% -16.6%
≤30d 186 -15.0% -23.1% 36% 34% -16.6%
≤90d 186 -15.0% -23.1% 36% 34% -16.6%
all 186 -15.0% -23.1% 36% 34% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover246.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 34% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 33% -24.6%
15% -37.2% 32% -31.9%
20% -43.4% 25% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses67 / 119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day246.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (87 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$13 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $40 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $35 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $41 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 717 history records