Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4452…7ae7 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$143 (-1%) realized −$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%15W / 34L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$451per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$278
14 days−$280
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$287
finance 34% +$6
world 11% +$1
sports 3% +$1
politics 1% +$6
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -55.5% -59.7% 18% 6% -14.5%
≤30d 45 -44.6% -49.8% 24% 7% -10.8%
≤90d 49 -40.9% -46.5% 31% 6% -10.2%
all 49 -40.9% -46.5% 31% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.5% 6% -10.2%
10% -51.7% 2% -18.8%
15% -56.3% 2% -26.7%
20% -60.6% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses15 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage38d
Avg bet$451
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $525 −$125 -24%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+3.5) Jun 18 $250 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-6.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+6.5) Jun 18 $250 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-9.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+9.5) Jun 18 $250 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -46%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -37%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $2,201 +$2 +0%
Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -93%
Will Gonçalo Ramos be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$4 -38%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $42 −$18 -42%
Will Davinson Sánchez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 +$9 +91%
Will Kobbie Mainoo be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -89%
Will Willer Ditta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$6 -63%
Will Santiago Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
Will Jorge Carrascal be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Álvaro Montero be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -95%
Will Gustavo Puerta be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Eberechi Eze be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Dan Burn be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Ollie Watkins be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Jhon Arias be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -92%
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Juan Portilla be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$7 -75%
Will James Trafford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -90%
Will Dean Henderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -91%
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -54%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 10 $15 $0 -2%
Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $4,808 +$202 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $446 +$41 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $834 −$228 -27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $110 −$26 -24%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $319 +$6 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $2,322 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,818 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,400 on May 16, 9PM ET? May 17 $150 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15? May 17 $5,706 +$5 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $1,623 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+3.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-6.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+6.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-9.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+9.5) BUY Oxuji Esports 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $250 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 1h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Natus Vincere 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Natus Vincere 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Natus Vincere 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) SELL Natus Vincere 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 3d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $300 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $1,653 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 0¢ $0 3d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $243 3d
Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 6d
Will Tino Livramento be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Gonçalo Ramos be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.90 · official $774.90 (match) · 314 history records