Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4450…d798 politics 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$966 (+0%) realized +$965 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 120L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$1,467per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$121
other 33% −$419
sports 14% +$1,477
culture 2% −$6
world 2% −$2
tech 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -0.6% -10.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 105 -11.0% -19.4% 7% 4% -9.6%
all 144 -2.5% -11.8% 17% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 8% -9.1%
10% -20.2% 8% -17.8%
15% -27.9% 8% -25.8%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,898) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$10 · ×8.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized+$965
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,467
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $632 $632 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,181 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $909 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $315 +$5 +2%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,226 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,194 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,370 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $987 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $61 +$53 +86%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,287 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,840 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,955 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $6,238 −$7 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $2,795 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,698 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $4,407 −$6 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $64 +$62 +97%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 10 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,607 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,515 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,767 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,299 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $2,595 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,645 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $4,473 −$5 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $3,866 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 03 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $778 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $779 2h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $852 19h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $853 21h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $890 22h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $891 27h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $871 42h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $873 44h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $842 46h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $844 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $531 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $532 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $900 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $902 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $908 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $909 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $162 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $138 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $15 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $757 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $758 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $861 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $862 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $639 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $640 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $884 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $762 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $763 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.50 · official $632.50 (match) · 538 history records