Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4450…381c sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$181 (-10%) realized −$224 · open +$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$113
other 28% −$2
world 2% −$41
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -21.3% -28.8% 39% 37% -20.5%
≤30d 59 -21.3% -28.8% 39% 37% -20.5%
≤90d 59 -21.3% -28.8% 39% 37% -20.5%
all 59 -21.3% -28.8% 39% 37% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 37% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 37% -28.1%
15% -41.8% 31% -35.1%
20% -47.5% 20% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$43
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 90¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+56%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 70¢ $31 $42 +$12 (+38%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 86¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+144%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 +$22 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$35 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $74 −$4 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$10 +48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $111 −$69 -62%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $30 +$17 +56%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $81 −$30 -37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $60 +$38 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$9 -18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$2 -6%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$4 -14%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$26 +170%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $151 +$45 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $65 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $39 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $30 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $36 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 33¢ $33 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $10 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $19 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $2 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $2 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $30 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $41 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 11¢ $29 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 14¢ $14 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $10 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $0 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 11¢ $1 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $5 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $4 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $22 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $30 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $30 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $30 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 68¢ $26 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.50 · official $96.63 · 159 history records