Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x444d…58bf other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$900 (-46%) realized −$900 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$645per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 99% −$974
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -50.6% -55.3% 0% 0% -55.3%
≤30d 1 -50.6% -55.3% 0% 0% -55.3%
≤90d 1 -50.6% -55.3% 0% 0% -55.3%
all 1 -50.6% -55.3% 0% 0% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.3% 0% -55.3%
10% -59.6% 0% -59.6%
15% ← realistic here -63.5% 0% -63.5%
20% -67.1% 0% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$974 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$900
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$645
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $1,926 −$974 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $24 5h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $52 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.60 · official $9.60 (match) · 99 history records