Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
44 0x444b…3868 crypto 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$897 (+24%) realized +$899 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day26.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$875
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 54% +11.6%
≤30d 28 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 54% +11.6%
≤90d 28 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 54% +11.6%
all 28 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 54% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 54% +11.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 54% +0.9%
15% -21.6% 54% -8.8%
20% -29.3% 54% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$93 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$899
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 58¢ 55¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $380 +$402 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $230 −$230 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$38 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$38 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $106 +$96 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $107 +$82 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $1,202 +$884 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $366 −$366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $87 +$86 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$18 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $23 +$21 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$22 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $24 +$24 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $116 +$105 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $50 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $13 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $243 +$235 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $42 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $380 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $222 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $106 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $107 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $211 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $603 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $389 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $366 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $181 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $87 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $87 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $36 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $24 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $23 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $24 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $24 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $116 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $60 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $56 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $61 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.75 · official $38.75 (match) · 62 history records