Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4449…cb66 other 167 markets active 1d ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,958 (-1%) realized −$1,962 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate16%26W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,584per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1,804
politics 38% −$125
sports 13% −$55
world 2% −$3
culture 2% −$6
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 -8.9% -17.6% 5% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 133 -9.3% -17.9% 8% 5% -10.5%
all 165 -2.4% -11.7% 16% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 11% -10.2%
10% -20.2% 11% -18.8%
15% -27.9% 10% -26.6%
20% -35.0% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$23 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$585
Realized−$1,962
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses26 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,584
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $327 $329 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $254 $257 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,292 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,560 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,666 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4,402 −$5 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,171 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,765 −$6 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $986 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $43 +$60 +140%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,920 −$4 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,217 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,420 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $588 +$1 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,687 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 28 $1,753 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,208 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,510 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $2,575 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,425 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,343 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $2,851 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $4,033 −$4 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $1,589 −$3 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $3,010 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $4,394 −$5 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $8,310 −$9 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $2,990 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,288 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $2,597 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,973 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 31h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 32h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $869 37h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 38h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,074 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,076 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,139 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,140 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $997 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $998 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $946 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $948 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 8d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $78 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $176 8d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,401 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,403 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $982 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $983 9d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,283 10d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,284 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $985 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $986 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $585.30 · official $585.30 (match) · 548 history records