Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
44 0x4449…6f82 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$2
world 19% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 12% +$1
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 19 -5.2% -14.2% 68% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -8.3%
10% -22.4% 0% -17.1%
15% -29.9% 0% -25.1%
20% -36.8% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.55 per $1 lost it wins $7.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage467d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -11%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 01 $0 $0 -20%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $17 $0 +0%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Southampton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 11 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5? BUY Yes $0 351d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $1 351d
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 365d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 381d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 399d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? BUY No 98¢ $2 413d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $1 427d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $16 441d
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E SELL Yes $0 442d
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E SELL Yes $0 442d
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E BUY Yes $0 443d
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? BUY No 98¢ $16 443d
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run SELL Yes $1 443d
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run SELL Yes $0 443d
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run SELL Yes $0 443d
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run SELL Yes $0 443d
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run SELL Yes $1 443d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.92 · official $48.92 (match) · 55 history records