Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4446…1fd0 other 878 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,367 (-2%) realized −$19,485 · open −$2,882
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%634W / 238L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,381per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$908est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$3,721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,976
7 days+$3,844
14 days+$6,361
30 days−$12,765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$15,349
sports 31% −$12,992
world 3% +$3,902
politics 1% −$789
finance 0% +$123
crypto 0% −$222
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +9.0% -1.4% 78% 45% -3.1%
≤30d 105 -2.5% -11.8% 74% 43% -19.1%
≤90d 309 -12.6% -20.9% 67% 44% -23.8%
all 872 -0.1% -9.6% 73% 53% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 53% -11.2%
10% -18.3% 32% -19.7%
15% -26.2% 19% -27.5%
20% -33.4% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$1,029 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$3,721
Realized−$19,485
Unrealized−$2,882
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses634 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$908
Open positions6
Markets (closed)872 / 878
History coverage216d
Avg bet$1,381
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 872 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Cabo Verde 82¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,171 +$171 (+17%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 76¢ $1,000 $811 −$189 (-19%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 92¢ 68¢ $1,000 $745 −$255 (-26%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 71¢ 14¢ $2,493 $474 −$2,018 (-81%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 36¢ $1,000 $420 −$580 (-58%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 86¢ $110 $100 −$10 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,012 −$127 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,007 −$40 -4%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,017 −$2,000 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,006 +$231 +23%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,006 +$214 +21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,001 +$44 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$55 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,090 +107%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,019 +$892 +44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,009 +$400 +40%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,002 +$63 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,002 +$81 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,007 +$245 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $1,018 +$808 +79%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $1,001 −$175 -18%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1,006 +$229 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,006 +$216 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,002 +$74 +7%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2,035 −$576 -28%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1,007 +$326 +32%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $1,007 +$219 +22%
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito Jun 12 $1,002 −$161 -16%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $1,001 +$51 +5%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1,002 +$85 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1,012 +$653 +64%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $1,010 −$203 -20%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $882 +$89 +10%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 10 $1,009 −$63 -6%
ITF kiseljak: Nemanja Malesevic vs Ivan Biletic Jun 10 $1,015 +$1,025 +101%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $1,002 +$50 +5%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $1,003 +$104 +10%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1,011 +$602 +60%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $1,001 +$30 +3%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Rada Zolotareva Jun 09 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Moldova leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1,002 +$57 +6%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $1,003 +$120 +12%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Hiromi Abe Jun 09 $101 +$45 +44%
Northern Ireland leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 09 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $1,013 +$620 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 82¢ $1,005 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 53¢ $886 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 75¢ $967 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,002 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,004 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $1,012 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1,007 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,002 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $1,008 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $1,237 18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $1,009 19h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 90¢ $1,003 19h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 20h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 80¢ $1,006 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $2,045 20h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 81¢ $1,006 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,013 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1,005 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1,002 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $2,001 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $2,106 34h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,911 34h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1,011 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $1,016 35h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,008 40h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 95¢ $1,001 40h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $1,005 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 40h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2,007 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,009 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,720.85 · official $3,720.85 (match) · 2060 history records