Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4443…f82f
crypto · 370 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,066 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,127 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$1,127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses279 / 90
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)369 / 370
History coverage134d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 369 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$12 +56%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $28 +$7 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $28 +$2 +9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -81%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$9 -93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 18 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 08 $100 +$28 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 08 $50 +$15 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$3 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 06 $20 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 06 $20 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 06 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$3 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% +$7
other 27% −$1,166
sports 2% +$15
world 0% +$19
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 4m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $32 40m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 59m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $25 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $3 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $3 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 1¢ $0 19h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 5¢ $2 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 22h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 23h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 72¢ $12 23h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 28h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $16 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 40h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 42h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 60% -15.8%
≤30d 15 -2.1% -11.4% 67% 60% -15.8%
≤90d 39 -7.2% -16.1% 74% 33% -16.0%
all 369 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 57% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 57% -17.1%
10% -17.7% 34% -25.1%
15% -25.6% 20% -32.3%
20% -32.9% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.93 (match) · 1404 history records