Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:14:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x443e…12e1
weather · 809 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$29 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses736 / 71
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)807 / 809
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 807 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$6
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -9%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on June 5? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 70°F or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 02 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or below on June 3? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 01 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on June 2? May 31 $5 −$4 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31? May 31 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 3 May 31 $5 −$3 -50%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May May 31 $5 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 70°F or higher on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 30? May 31 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on May 30? May 31 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $5 +$4 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 76°F or higher on May 29? May 30 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C or below on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 83% +$24
sports 10% +$7
crypto 7% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 SELL Yes 60¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? SELL Yes 89¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on June 10? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FUT Esports 84¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 5? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +12.6% +1.9% 89% 56% -7.2%
≤30d 112 +0.9% -8.7% 81% 38% -6.9%
≤90d 749 -0.9% -10.4% 91% 8% -9.0%
all 807 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 11% -8.8%
10% -18.7% 5% -17.6%
15% -26.5% 2% -25.5%
20% -33.7% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.57 · official $9.57 (match) · 1786 history records