Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x443e…1235
weather · 1149 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$514 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$568 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$449
Realized−$568
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses974 / 161
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1135 / 1149
History coverage94d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 13 History 1135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$7
14 days−$97
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 93¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 10? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 4? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 29°C on May 8? No 98¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? No 95¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B FURIA 92¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? No 97¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on May 24? No 97¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 8? No 95¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? No 98¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Yes 97¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gover Jun 10 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 08 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 08 $76 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Eligia Santucci win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral electio Jun 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 7? Jun 07 $100 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6? Jun 07 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 07 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 6? Jun 06 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 06 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 06 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $93 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 57% −$351
crypto 27% +$219
other 6% −$147
world 3% −$165
sports 2% −$112
politics 2% +$6
finance 1% +$16
culture 1% +$7
tech 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 11m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 23m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $17 25m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 32m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $49 35m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 48m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 48m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $23 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 SELL No 98¢ $76 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +0.6% -8.9% 65% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 384 -0.7% -10.1% 78% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1134 -0.9% -10.3% 86% 1% -10.3%
all 1135 -0.9% -10.3% 86% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.86 · official $446.83 (match) · 3127 history records