Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x443d…71bc other 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$139 (+1%) realized +$138 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%265W / 30L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$15
14 days+$40
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$116
politics 29% +$15
world 13% +$6
culture 7% +$12
tech 5% −$21
economics 4% +$5
finance 1% +$3
crypto 1% −$2
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 93% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 157 +0.9% -8.7% 92% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 295 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -8.3%
all 295 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -17.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses265 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)295 / 298
History coverage49d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 98¢ 98¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $55 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 13 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +2%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $29 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 12 $29 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Jun 10 $58 +$1 +2%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $29 $0 +2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 6.1%? Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.8% and 6.1%? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $58 +$1 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $58 +$1 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 07 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 07 $16 $0 +2%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 07 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 07 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $117 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $29 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Traian Basescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea Jun 04 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 04 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 99¢ $4 47m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 SELL No 100¢ $30 58m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY No 98¢ $29 6h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 24h
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 97¢ $29 24h
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 98¢ $29 24h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 SELL No 100¢ $60 24h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 BUY No 97¢ $29 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 BUY No 98¢ $29 27h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 27h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 27h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 27h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 27h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 33h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 33h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL No 99¢ $1 34h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL No 99¢ $38 34h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J SELL No 99¢ $21 34h
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 97¢ $29 35h
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 98¢ $29 35h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J BUY No 97¢ $29 36h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J BUY No 98¢ $29 36h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $60 38h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $29 46h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $29 46h
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? SELL Yes 99¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.85 · official $154.85 (match) · 1125 history records