Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x443d…3f58 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%13W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1
world 32% −$1
sports 13% $0
politics 9% −$3
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% −$12
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 45 -2.6% -11.8% 29% 0% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.5%
10% -20.3% 0% -19.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage308d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $52 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $128 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $33 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $2 $0 -12%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $11 $0 +1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 21 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 19 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $6 59m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $29 59m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $35 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $17 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $19 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $16 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $17 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records