Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
44 0x443c…d83a sports 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$280 (+1%) realized +$400 · open −$120
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%160W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$511est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$179
14 days+$228
30 days+$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$11
other 2% −$226
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.0% -10.5% 40% 40% +8.0%
≤30d 61 +5.9% -4.1% 52% 51% -4.4%
≤90d 325 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 46% -9.8%
all 325 +2.0% -7.7% 49% 46% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 46% -9.8%
10% -16.6% 42% -18.4%
15% -24.6% 40% -26.3%
20% -32.0% 33% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$75 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized+$400
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses160 / 165
Est. fees paid−$511
Open positions18
Markets (closed)325 / 343
History coverage79d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Power Rangers 74¢ 94¢ $122 $156 +$35 (+28%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 54¢ 100¢ $54 $99 +$45 (+84%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 30¢ 3¢ $98 $10 −$87 (-89%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 20¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $82 +$205 +250%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$43 +43%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $94 −$5 -6%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $110 +$20 +18%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $300 −$18 -6%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $91 +$82 +90%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $93 −$91 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 09 $190 +$83 +44%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Group Jun 09 $61 +$34 +57%
Ethiopia vs. Malawi: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 09 $124 −$121 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 08 $13 +$17 +134%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $100 +$70 +70%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $37 +$9 +23%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $95 +$50 +52%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $89 +$76 +85%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $200 +$68 +34%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $62 −$61 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 29 $49 −$32 -65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $35 −$34 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $200 −$199 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $358 +$6 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $49 +$109 +221%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $220 +$105 +48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $117 +$111 +95%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $140 +$102 +73%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $120 −$118 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $209 +$166 +80%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $146 −$145 -99%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $140 +$94 +67%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $275 −$273 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $253 −$52 -20%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $190 −$187 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $399 +$77 +19%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $135 −$132 -98%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs ALGO Esports (+1.5) May 27 $71 −$70 -98%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 May 27 $58 +$84 +146%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $90 +$112 +125%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $420 −$162 -39%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $70 −$69 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $109 +$64 +59%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner May 26 $200 +$83 +41%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner May 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 73¢ $10 15m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 74¢ $58 18m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 73¢ $54 20m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 20¢ $3 35m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 20¢ $8 35m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 74¢ $77 38m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 76¢ $33 45m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 76¢ $13 45m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 76¢ $4 45m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 76¢ $30 45m
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $15 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 49¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $100 6h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.45 · official $366.45 (match) · 826 history records