Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x443b…dcb3 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized +$52 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$98
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$14
sports 31% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +49.3% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.0%
≤30d 1 +49.3% +35.0% 100% 100% +35.0%
≤90d 24 -50.4% -55.1% 29% 25% -16.5%
all 27 -43.0% -48.4% 33% 30% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 30% -15.4%
10% -53.4% 26% -23.5%
15% -57.9% 26% -30.9%
20% -62.0% 22% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage109d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $299 $235 −$64 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $200 +$98 +49%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Quetta Gladiators Apr 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Declan Rice: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Sporting CP? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Dominik Szoboszlai: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Mohamed Salah: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $19 −$9 -47%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $12 +$14 +118%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Islamabad United Apr 12 $10 +$8 +84%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans - Who wi Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Apr 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 11 $25 −$5 -20%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $24 −$10 -41%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $5 +$5 +105%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $9 −$9 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Mar 01 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 24h
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 13¢ $4 32d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 13¢ $1 32d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 22¢ $3 32d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 22¢ $3 32d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 34¢ $9 32d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Delhi Capitals 10¢ $5 51d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Delhi Capitals 14¢ $10 51d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 28¢ $5 62d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 46¢ $8 62d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings SELL Mumbai Indians 66¢ $34 62d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings SELL Mumbai Indians 66¢ $1 62d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 30¢ $10 62d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 45¢ $2 62d
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings BUY Mumbai Indians 53¢ $8 62d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 62d
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Quetta Gladiators SELL Peshawar Zalmi 100¢ $21 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 63d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants $1 63d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants $5 63d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants 14¢ $5 63d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $5 63d
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Quetta Gladiators BUY Peshawar Zalmi 47¢ $10 63d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants 38¢ $10 63d
Declan Rice: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 25¢ $5 63d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Sporting CP? BUY Yes $1 63d
Dominik Szoboszlai: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 29¢ $5 64d
Mohamed Salah: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 24¢ $5 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.74 · official $234.74 (match) · 70 history records