Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
44 0x4439…be9d other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$217 (-17%) realized −$207 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days−$210
14 days−$179
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$383
crypto 41% +$31
world 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -60.2% -64.0% 0% 0% -64.0%
≤30d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 0% -28.0%
≤90d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 0% -28.0%
all 4 -30.0% -36.7% 50% 0% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 0% -35.9%
10% -42.7% 0% -42.0%
15% -48.3% 0% -47.6%
20% -53.3% 0% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$187 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$207
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage99d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $137 $127 −$10 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $349 −$210 -60%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $531 +$31 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 21 $58 +$5 +9%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $218 −$163 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $141 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $139 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $349 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $349 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $248 87d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $63 92d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 92d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $58 93d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $55 93d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 98d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 98d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 98d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $200 98d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $213 98d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $220 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.84 · official $126.84 (match) · 108 history records