Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4436…cf98 sports 779 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$292 (+2%) realized +$307 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%468W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day51.2pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$43
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$182
other 39% +$352
crypto 6% +$10
weather 1% −$51
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +7.8% -2.5% 69% 51% -6.8%
≤30d 268 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 49% -13.8%
≤90d 777 +3.4% -6.4% 60% 47% -8.8%
all 777 +3.4% -6.4% 60% 47% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 47% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 37% -17.5%
15% -23.6% 29% -25.5%
20% -31.1% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$307
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses468 / 309
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions2
Markets (closed)777 / 779
History coverage42d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day51.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 777 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 18¢ 80¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+357%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 60¢ 68¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 63¢ 20¢ $18 $5 −$12 (-69%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 51¢ 32¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$14 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$9 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$8 +176%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$7 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.43 · official $30.43 (match) · 2911 history records