Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:54:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4435…bd17 crypto 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$40 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%40W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$2
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$44
other 39% −$134
sports 6% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -15.3% -23.4% 45% 45% -9.5%
≤30d 85 -8.1% -16.8% 47% 47% -13.1%
≤90d 85 -8.1% -16.8% 47% 47% -13.1%
all 85 -8.1% -16.8% 47% 47% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -13.1%
10% -24.8% 46% -21.4%
15% -32.1% 42% -29.0%
20% -38.7% 38% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$34 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses40 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage11d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $260 +$178 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$12 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 +$93 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 19 $52 +$127 +246%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $185 −$181 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$53 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $140 +$313 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$24 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$17 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$39 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$18 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$21 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$47 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $42 +$46 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $306 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $256 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $101 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $52 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 44h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 45h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $72 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $62 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.36 · official $397.17 (match) · 147 history records