Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

44
0x4435…786f
other · 504 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,300 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,529 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$210
Realized−$2,529
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses47 / 382
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions8
Markets (closed)429 / 504
History coverage13d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day224.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 8 History 429 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$901
7 days−$1,884
14 days−$2,529
30 days−$2,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 68¢ $96 $84 −$12 (-12%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No 59¢ 57¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bill Reid win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? No 97¢ 89¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? No 13¢ 11¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch Yes 16¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in May? No 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $95 in May? Jun 13 $0 −$3 -1964%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 13 $0 −$6 -10209%
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $3,778 −$31 -1%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $155 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $1,609 −$26 -2%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 13 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? Jun 13 $179 −$20 -11%
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -41%
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $460 −$49 -11%
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? Jun 13 $143 −$12 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 13 $19 −$11 -57%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 13 $861 −$29 -3%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $326 −$1 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $729 −$8 -1%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $81 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $911 −$20 -2%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $98 −$10 -10%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $120 −$7 -6%
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $138 −$7 -5%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $127 −$2 -2%
Will G2 Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 13 $193 −$6 -3%
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary elec Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $111 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $137 −$2 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $86 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 −$9 -48%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $304 −$4 -1%
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Jun 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title? Jun 13 $172 −$3 -2%
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 13 $128 −$1 -0%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $176 −$4 -2%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $116 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,581 −$27 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $127 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Jun 13 $139 −$4 -3%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $126 −$1 -1%
Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 13 $76 −$3 -5%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -19%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $273 −$12 -4%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% −$1,348
politics 18% −$380
sports 16% −$170
world 12% −$310
finance 9% −$190
crypto 8% −$33
tech 5% −$88
economics 2% −$18
culture 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? SELL No 1¢ $0 4m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 9m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $19 9m
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 1¢ $0 10m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 11m
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 11¢ $13 11m
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $110 14m
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15m
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 16m
Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 17m
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? SELL No 84¢ $8 18m
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 11¢ $15 19m
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $111 19m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $103 22m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $23 22m
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $29 28m
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $98 28m
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Gro BUY No 77¢ $96 33m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $39 34m
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $9 34m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $116 35m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $116 35m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $19 36m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL No 38¢ $28 37m
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $58 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 38m
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 48m
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 48m
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 3¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -6.4% -15.3% 15% 7% -13.0%
≤30d 429 -6.3% -15.2% 11% 6% -13.0%
≤90d 429 -6.3% -15.2% 11% 6% -13.0%
all 429 -6.3% -15.2% 11% 6% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover224.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 6% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 4% -21.3%
15% -30.7% 2% -28.9%
20% -37.5% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.49 · official $306.30 · 3500 history records