Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4433…3e54 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,933 (-2%) realized −$1,934 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%11W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,269per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$16
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$2,232
politics 35% −$40
sports 7% +$327
culture 3% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 42 -10.2% -18.8% 5% 0% -13.3%
all 75 +3.1% -6.7% 15% 8% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 8% -11.3%
10% -15.7% 8% -19.8%
15% -23.8% 8% -27.6%
20% -31.3% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,639) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$40 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$1,084
Realized−$1,934
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses11 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage113d
Avg bet$1,269
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $680 $681 +$1 (+0%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $403 $403 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $270 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $3,670 −$4 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $506 +$2 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $2,048 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5,115 −$6 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,542 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $756 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,743 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,463 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $873 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,905 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $2,554 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,389 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,388 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 01 $724 +$2 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $568 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $9,275 −$9 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 14 $2,119 −$2,119 -100%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 05 $38 −$9 -25%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-08? Mar 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-16? Mar 27 $78 −$78 -100%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $106 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 26 $83 +$94 +113%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $3,454 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $1,214 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $1,457 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $112 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $403 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $486 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $487 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $342 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $343 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $296 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $296 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $680 8d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $688 10d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $689 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $758 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $760 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $749 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $750 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $628 13d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $629 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $789 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $789 17d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $949 18d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $951 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $873 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $874 19d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $853 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $854 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $754 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $754 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $752 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $753 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,084.36 · official $1,084.36 (match) · 229 history records