Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4430…541f sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$599 (-16%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%23W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$65
14 days−$166
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$516
weather 19% −$79
other 9% −$28
economics 8% +$70
politics 2% −$66
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -17.4% -25.3% 33% 31% -15.2%
≤30d 47 -20.4% -28.0% 32% 30% -20.9%
≤90d 47 -20.4% -28.0% 32% 30% -20.9%
all 66 -24.8% -32.0% 35% 32% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 32% -25.5%
10% -38.5% 27% -32.7%
15% -44.4% 23% -39.2%
20% -49.9% 18% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$35 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses23 / 43
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage160d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $30 +$70 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -97%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $26 +$11 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $68 −$67 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $82 −$81 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $20 +$30 +150%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 +$62 +124%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $60 −$4 -7%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $58 +$50 +87%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $23 −$23 -99%
Tim Weah: 1+ goals Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $51 +$53 +105%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 −$2 -10%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $68 +$15 +22%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $37 −$2 -5%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $92 −$32 -35%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$25 +163%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $33 −$3 -9%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$46 +345%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$6 +22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $11 +$24 +216%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $37 +$53 +143%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $55 −$30 -55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $37 +$33 +89%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 +$15 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $138 −$7 -5%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $5 −$2 -30%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Feb 01 $75 −$75 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $30 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $37 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $26 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $68 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $6 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $0 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 5h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $11 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 5h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $12 5h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $46 6h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $15 9h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $69 9h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 90¢ $63 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 4¢ $4 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $67 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $56 11h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY 44¢ $50 11h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $0 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 92¢ $94 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $51 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records