Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x442f…e7a2 other 19 markets active 3h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,163 (-18%) realized −$2,163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$647per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,559
7 days−$780
14 days−$780
30 days−$780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$480
world 31% −$1,995
sports 2% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.7% -38.2% 29% 21% -17.9%
≤30d 14 -31.7% -38.2% 29% 21% -17.9%
≤90d 14 -31.7% -38.2% 29% 21% -17.9%
all 19 -40.3% -46.0% 26% 21% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 21% -30.1%
10% -51.2% 21% -36.8%
15% -55.9% 21% -42.9%
20% -60.2% 21% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -80% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$800 vs −$484 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage362d
Avg bet$647
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,516 +$801 +53%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $203 +$231 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $530 +$2,026 +382%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $718 −$700 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,205 +$161 +7%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $499 −$494 -99%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jun 24 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $1,000 +$779 +78%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,317 39h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $434 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 56¢ $2,556 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $324 41h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $513 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 41h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $205 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,007 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $2,205 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $306 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 64¢ $499 6d
Israel military action against Iran in July? BUY Yes 30¢ $174 359d
Israel military action against Iran in July? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,000 360d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $500 361d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,000 361d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 362d
US military action against Iran before July? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,000 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records