Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x442a…bd20 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$4
other 36% $0
sports 23% −$14
finance 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.5% -5.5% 22% 11% -9.0%
≤30d 26 +72.7% +56.3% 31% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 37 +50.6% +36.3% 30% 5% -9.5%
all 41 +43.4% +29.8% 32% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.8% 7% -9.8%
10% +17.4% 7% -18.4%
15% +6.0% 7% -26.3%
20% -4.4% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +87% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage487d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $48 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $15 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $151 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $30 +$2 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $21 +$3 +16%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $61 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $77 +$2 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $124 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $209 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $280 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $280 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $285 −$3 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Central Michigan vs. Ball State Mar 03 $23 −$21 -92%
Bryant vs. Vermont Mar 03 $12 +$12 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $45 2h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $25 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 173 history records