Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4429…722e sports 718 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (315 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$253 (-2%) realized −$308 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%361W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day314.6pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$65
sports 31% −$197
other 3% −$146
politics 1% +$16
finance 0% −$13
economics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (315 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 682 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 42% -13.9%
≤30d 682 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 42% -13.9%
≤90d 682 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 42% -13.9%
all 682 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 42% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover314.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 42% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 32% -22.2%
15% -29.7% 22% -29.7%
20% -36.6% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses361 / 321
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions36
Markets (closed)682 / 718
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day314.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 0¢ 68¢ $0 $75 +$75 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 95¢ 89¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 92¢ 72¢ $36 $29 −$8 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 86¢ 69¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 79¢ 95¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+20%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 62¢ 60¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros 42¢ 44¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? No 91¢ 81¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 43¢ 40¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 39¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 57¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 45¢ 45¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ 86¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+131%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 61¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+64%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Over 51¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+96%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 60¢ 40¢ $7 $5 −$3 (-35%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 77¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians 43¢ 61¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 81¢ 74¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 45¢ 58¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Over 47¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $187 −$51 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $85 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $82 −$57 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $84 −$60 -72%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $81 +$30 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $84 +$27 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $92 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $83 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $98 −$54 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $83 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $84 +$27 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $98 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $94 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $85 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $92 −$32 -35%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 +$4 +113%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $17 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $82 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $81 +$30 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $85 +$26 +30%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $19 −$10 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$11 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$18 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$11 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $82 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $117 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $81 −$46 -58%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$11 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $97 0m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $4 1m
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 42¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $87 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $41 5m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 53¢ $2 6m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 3¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $85 10m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 44¢ $5 10m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $2 12m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $82 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $24 18m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $84 20m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 20m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $2 20m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $2 20m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $2 20m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 41¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $81 29m
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 52¢ $2 34m
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 37¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $84 38m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.41 · official $259.58 · 2734 history records