Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4428…1bf5 other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%17W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 23% −$21
politics 8% −$8
economics 7% −$5
culture 7% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses17 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage142d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $138 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $571 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $601 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $208 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $722 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $317 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $391 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $624 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $292 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $226 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $797 −$3 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $334 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $460 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 5h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 14h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 15h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 17h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 19h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 20h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 21h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $6 21h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 23h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 25h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 25h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1 27h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 29h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 39h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 41h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 44h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 45h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 46h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.70 · official $57.70 (match) · 1534 history records