Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
44 0x4428…891a crypto 393 markets active 2d ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$530 (+7%) realized +$530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%198W / 195L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$839
7 days−$174
14 days+$276
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 48% -13.7%
≤30d 392 -0.7% -10.1% 51% 49% -6.4%
≤90d 392 -0.7% -10.1% 51% 49% -6.4%
all 393 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 49% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 49% -6.4%
10% -18.8% 49% -15.4%
15% -26.7% 48% -23.6%
20% -33.8% 45% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$19 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses198 / 195
Open positions0
Markets (closed)393 / 393
History coverage126d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 393 Trades
no open positions (112 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $627 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$82 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$68 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$59 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$27 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$52 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $386 +$352 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $140 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $64 +$89 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $47 +$50 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$18 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $44 +$40 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$20 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$88 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $78 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $79 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $79 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $79 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $79 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $78 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $78 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $78 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $78 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $79 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $78 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $78 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $78 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $37 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $64 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $58 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $36 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $36 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $24 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $62 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1106 history records