Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4424…4cc6 other 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,411 (-8%) realized −$3,422 · open −$989
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%48W / 68L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$379per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$8,881now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$420
14 days−$140
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$454
politics 40% +$2,844
world 6% −$1,118
tech 2% −$904
sports 1% +$330
finance 1% −$407
crypto 1% +$126
culture 0% −$147
economics 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +287.2% +250.3% 67% 67% +74.2%
≤90d 35 -12.8% -21.1% 34% 34% -15.2%
all 116 -23.5% -30.8% 41% 29% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 29% -5.3%
10% -37.4% 23% -14.3%
15% -43.5% 18% -22.6%
20% -49.0% 16% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -39% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$132 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$8,881
Realized−$3,422
Unrealized−$989
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions30
Markets (closed)116 / 147
History coverage206d
Avg bet$379
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $1,467 $2,117 +$649 (+44%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,119 $972 −$147 (-13%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $1,152 $816 −$336 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $648 $684 +$35 (+5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $658 $484 −$174 (-26%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $213 $411 +$197 (+93%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $401 $408 +$7 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $405 $290 −$115 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $462 $288 −$173 (-38%)
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $237 $284 +$47 (+20%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $266 $258 −$8 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $322 $251 −$70 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $261 $229 −$32 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $152 $222 +$70 (+46%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $128 $216 +$88 (+69%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $101 $187 +$86 (+85%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $112 $108 −$4 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $70 $100 +$30 (+43%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $60 $99 +$39 (+65%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $97 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $997 $73 −$924 (-93%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $51 $29 −$22 (-43%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $33 $27 −$5 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 +$280 +227%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 08 $100 +$735 +735%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $178 −$178 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $163 +$174 +107%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 05 $147 −$144 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $180 −$24 -13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $233 −$228 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Apr 22 $149 −$147 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Apr 16 $43 +$8 +18%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $66 +$95 +144%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 15 $66 +$63 +95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $60 +$87 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-20? Apr 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Apr 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026? Apr 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31? Apr 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $54 +$17 +32%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.2% and 2 Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 2.5% and 2 Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 10 $50 +$16 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 09 $788 +$211 +27%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 08 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $28 +$16 +60%
Will Trump say "Congress" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 01 $90 −$89 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 01 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? Apr 01 $101 −$1 -1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 25 $100 +$33 +33%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29) Mar 25 $844 −$435 -52%
Will Marco Rubio visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 +$212 +212%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $100 +$378 +378%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Mar 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 13 $104 +$94 +90%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will CA Huracán vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? Mar 13 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $23 +$25 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $81 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 2h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,040 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 3h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 3h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06- BUY 39¢ $99 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 4h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $89 4h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $115 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $80 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,881.45 · official $8,979.57 · 1830 history records