Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4422…74dd crypto 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-8%) realized −$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%108W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +14.2% +3.3% 71% 71% +3.4%
≤30d 25 +14.5% +3.6% 72% 72% +3.7%
≤90d 90 -8.1% -16.9% 66% 50% -14.5%
all 186 -12.8% -21.1% 58% 47% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 47% -17.6%
10% -28.7% 31% -25.5%
15% -35.6% 24% -32.7%
20% -41.9% 17% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses108 / 78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage112d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$11 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$12 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$11 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 25 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 25 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 25 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 14 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 13 $16 −$13 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET May 13 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 13 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5AM ET May 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 657 history records