Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
44 0x4420…3bab world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$955 (-7%) realized −$955 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate60%32W / 21L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days−$78
14 days−$1,459
30 days−$959
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$549
other 7% −$427
finance 1% +$11
economics 0% −$52
crypto 0% +$53
politics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.9% -24.8% 45% 18% -85.4%
≤30d 53 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 26% -15.7%
≤90d 53 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 26% -15.7%
all 53 -7.4% -16.2% 60% 26% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 26% -15.7%
10% -24.2% 9% -23.8%
15% -31.5% 4% -31.1%
20% -38.2% 4% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$94 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$955
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses32 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage27d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Jun 16 $31 −$28 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $854 −$349 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $954 +$59 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $96 −$58 -61%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $326 +$70 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $277 +$26 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $775 −$23 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $806 −$93 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $200 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 07 $130 +$27 +20%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $132 −$51 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 07 $250 +$7 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $184 +$1 +1%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,632 −$1,154 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $586 +$172 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -27%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $49 +$3 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $369 +$34 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 +$54 +131%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 31 $38 +$8 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $697 +$104 +15%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 30 $36 −$35 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $1,404 +$89 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $632 +$40 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $195 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $10 −$3 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $10 −$2 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 28 $223 +$75 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? May 28 $135 +$2 +2%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $102 −$36 -35%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $4 −$2 -40%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest May 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $399 +$52 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $386 +$7 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $114 +$77 +67%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $103 +$11 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $97 −$36 -37%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $231 +$23 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $209 +$17 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 73¢ $50 40h
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun SELL No 0¢ $0 7d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 73¢ $71 7d
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun BUY No 75¢ $70 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records