Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
44 0x4420…fc1f sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$104 (+13%) realized +$98 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$24
14 days−$5
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$27
other 19% −$32
world 15% +$40
finance 12% +$17
crypto 11% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +6.3% -3.8% 57% 57% -18.0%
≤30d 26 +3.2% -6.6% 62% 58% -6.0%
≤90d 32 +11.0% +0.4% 66% 62% +3.4%
all 32 +11.0% +0.4% 66% 62% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 62% +3.4%
10% -9.2% 53% -6.5%
15% -18.0% 47% -15.5%
20% -26.0% 38% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage82d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 100¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+127%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 74¢ 98¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+32%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 50¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +157%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +51%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$21 +138%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 11 $10 +$18 +179%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $51 +$21 +41%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $21 +$28 +134%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $41 +$29 +72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing May 17 $23 +$3 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 03 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 03 $28 +$22 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 03 $20 +$15 +75%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $23 −$3 -11%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $40 +$23 +58%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $36 +$8 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 1h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 71¢ $20 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 35h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 82¢ $10 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $15 3d
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 35¢ $10 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 50¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 4d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 64¢ $20 6d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $10 9d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 70¢ $51 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 39¢ $20 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 74¢ $30 13d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $20 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $20 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 41¢ $21 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 69¢ $25 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.79 · official $107.79 (match) · 75 history records