Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

44 0x441e…73c5 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$77 (-28%) realized −$76 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip

Net edge-62%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-58.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-54.2%	-58.6%	20%	20%	-49.8%
≤30d	5	-54.2%	-58.6%	20%	20%	-49.8%
≤90d	5	-54.2%	-58.6%	20%	20%	-49.8%
all	5	-54.2%	-58.6%	20%	20%	-49.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-58.6%	20%	-49.8%
10%	-62.6%	20%	-54.6%
15%	-66.2%	20%	-59.0%
20%	-69.5%	20%	-63.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -44% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -54% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$33 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.41 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized−$76

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$101	$101	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 17	$20	−$20	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 17	$77	−$75	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 17	$42	+$54	+129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	62¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$104	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.94 · official $100.94 (match) · 15 history records