Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
44 0x441c…fc7d crypto 1612 markets active 6h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate87%1422W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$36
14 days−$40
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
other 0% +$1
sports 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -49.3% -54.1% 45% 23% -30.3%
≤30d 117 -19.7% -27.4% 70% 44% -16.6%
≤90d 851 -2.8% -12.0% 85% 23% -10.6%
all 1633 -1.9% -11.2% 87% 15% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 15% -10.4%
10% -19.7% 1% -19.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1422 / 211
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1633 / 1612
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1633 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -932%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -686%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -612%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1653%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -940%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1342%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -839%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -716%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -743%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -899%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -698%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -753%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -721%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 7d
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 87¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.34 · official $1.44 (match) · 3500 history records